Longtime environment writer Jeff Alexander just launched a nifty feature to track the Asian carp crisis.
It’s modeled after the Doomsday Clock that scientists created in the 1940s to track how the world inched toward nuclear holocaust.
The Asian Carp Doomsday Clock features hands made of images of bighead and silver carp – two of the species biologists and others fear could devastate the Great Lakes ecosystem.
Jeff does a nice round up of a week’s worth of bad news along the carp Maginot Line to justify setting the hands at a mere five minutes before midnight.
When the original Doomsday Clock was launched in 1947, it was set at seven minutes to midnight. The closest it came to midnight was 11:58 p.m. in 1953 when the U.S. and Soviet Union both tested thermonuclear devices. The farthest it’s been set from midnight is 11:43 p.m. in 1991. That’s when the two countries signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. It’s now at 11:55 p.m.
Check out Jeff’s carp clock on his new blog, All Things Great Lakes. You can weigh in there if you think his prediction is right on, too dire or too generous. Or maybe give your suggestions on how to turn back time.
According to D. chapman “Asian carp are the most efficient freshwater filter feeding fish in the world” They’ve been eating the local cuisine since they got here. They just spawned in the Wabash during a drought. ???????? Any delays because “maybe, possibly hopefully” they can’t survive here means we get a carp problem. We must assume they can and act accordingly. Error on the side of caution.
I actually read the entire study published by the Canadians.
To be totally honest, after reading the study I would set the clock at one minute after noon. We’re a long way from seeing Asian Carp breeding in the Great Lakes In fact, I doubt that day will ever come.
Here’s why.
Asian Carp were randomly caught in nets in Lake Erie between 1995 and 2002. In order for them to be randomly caught when fishermen were not even looking for them, there would have had to have been at least 100s, if not 1000s, of Asian Carp in the Lake the study claims would be most conducive to their survival. In addition, they were caught in western Lake Erie, not too far from the Maumee River which is theoretically one of the rivers that would support Asian Carp reproduction.
And yet, after 17 years from when the first Carp were caught in Lake Erie we find that they did not reproduce in Lake Erie or the Maumee River and eventually died off. However, the Canadian study claims that by now all five Great Lakes should be infested with Asian Carp. So, the “science” behind the “study” could not even predict what we know has already happened!
Obviously the Canadian study is flawed and Asian Carp are not, in reality, a threat to the Great Lakes.
So why is the Canadian study so irrelevant?
Because it offers nothing but a mathematical prediction based on a compilation of opinions from other papers that we now know were flawed. In fact, I remember seeing those same charts and tables in a paper released by the same authors several years ago who are now referencing their own erroneous research – a practice considered unethical in the scientific community.
What the Canadian study does not have is any new science or research. Particularly research on live Asian Carp that would support their claims.
This study is only 12 pages long and even acknowledges that:
“Predictions and risk assessment on species that are currently not established in the Great Lakes are based on best available information. Research that is underway where results were not available, or research noted as a critical knowledge gap, may in the future, provide more information that would change the results of the risk assessment.”
Doesn’t sound very convincing, does it?
Time? 12:01 AM!
Good Job Jeff! Thanks to the Canadians as well. From the study : “Population growth is most sensitve to the survivorship of juveniles” : If no additional management actions are taken “Survival immediate upon arrival” This all ties in with how many predators they run into, whether it’s invasive friendly. Thanks to the alewife protection plan. Survival immediate upon arrival!